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SFPI MLS Power Rankings Week 19

Football Is (NOT) Coming Home Edition

MLS: Seattle Sounders at Los Angeles FC Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Week 19 is over, Portland extended their league-leading unbeaten streak to 11, and Orlando extended their losing streak to 9, which is the longest in MLS since Toronto also lost 9 in a row in 2012. It is the second longest since ties were allowed (RSL lost 10 straight in 2005). Sporting KC appears to have hit the “Sporting Wall” after winning 7 out of their first 11, as they have only won 2 of their last 8, and are winless in 3.

This week’s big winners by position were Seattle and RSL both climbing three spots, while FC Dallas dropped three to be the biggest loser. By points, New York City had the best week, not only beating their rivals but gaining 1.0461 points in the process. Philadelphia had the worst week, giving back 1.5479 points.

As always, here’s a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main components: “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on-the-field results, and “Strength of Schedule,” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

Performance Score

  • A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:
  • Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches, with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
  • Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
  • Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over the entire season.

Strength of Schedule

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponent’s Points Per Game at home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that number of times. Numbered 1-23, with 23 being the easiest, and weighted at less than 100%.

Strength of Schedule and Performance Score combine to give a team’s Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

Features of Note

  • Remaining Schedule: Same as Strength of Schedule, only for games remaining.
  • Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also shows how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.
  • Record is in W-L-D format. *Denotes Above Red Line.
  • Parentheses indicate change from the previous week, with – indicating no change.

Rankings

1 *LAFC (34pts 10-3-5) Score: 11.3261 (+1.0237); Prev: 3 (+2); High 1 Low 8

Schedule: 11 (-1); Pace: 64 (LW 63); Remaining Schedule: 19 (-)

Last Week: D 2-2 at Houston, W 4-1 vs Orlando; Next Week: vs (6) Portland

Total Weeks at #1: 1 (1 Consecutive)


2 *Atlanta (40pts 12-4-4) Score: 10.8302 (+0.0663); Prev: 1 (-1); High 1 Low 6

Schedule: 5 (+2); Pace: 68 (LW 69); Remaining Schedule: 23 (-)

Last Week: L 3-2 at Dallas, W 2-0 at Philadelphia; Next Week: vs (17) Seattle

Total Weeks at #1: 5


3 *New York RB (32pts 10-5-2) Score: 9.9289 (-0.191); Prev: 4 (+1); High 1 Low 12

Schedule: 14 (+6); Pace: 64 (LW 67); Remaining Schedule: 12 (-)

Last Week: L 1-0 at New York City; Next Week: vs (8) Kansas Cit

Total Weeks at #1: 2


4 *New York City (34pts 10-4-4) Score: 9.8363 (+1.0461); Prev: 6 (+2); High 2 Low 6

Schedule: 4 (+1); Pace: 64 (LW 61); Remaining Schedule: 22 (-1)

Last Week: W 1-0 vs New York RB; Next Week: vs (11) Montreal, vs (14) Columbus


5 *Dallas (35pts 10-3-5) Score: 9.7593 (-0.7621); Prev: 2 (-3); High 1 Low 9

Schedule: 3 (+5); Pace: 66 (LW 68); Remaining Schedule: 20 (-)

Last Week: W 3-2 at Atlanta, L 2-0 at Salt Lake; Next Week: vs (16) Chicago

Total Weeks at #1: 3


6 *Portland (29pts 8-3-5) Score: 8.8861 (-0.0025); Prev: 5 (-1); High 2 Low 9

Schedule: 17 (-2); Pace: 61 (LW 58); Remaining Schedule: 18 (-)

Last Week: W 2-1 vs San Jose; Next Week: at (1) LAFC


7 LA Galaxy (25pts 7-7-4) Score: 7.1365 (+0.1967); Prev: 9 (+2); High 7 Low 18

Schedule: 1 (-); Pace: 47 (LW 44); Remaining Schedule: 21 (+2)

Last Week: D 2-2 vs DC, W 4-0 vs Columbus; Next Week: at (9) New England


8 *Kansas City (33pts 10-4-4) Score: 6.9737 (-1.4804); Prev: 7 (-1); High 4 Low 8

Schedule: 23 (-1); Pace: 59 (LW 64); Remaining Schedule: 4 (+7)

Last Week: L 4-2 at Salt Lake, D 2-2 vs Toronto; Next Week: at (3) New York RB


9 *New England (28pts 7-4-7) Score: 6.7706 (-0.5606); Prev: 8 (-1): High 6 Low 13

Schedule: 12 (-6); Pace: 52 (LW 53); Remaining Schedule: 16 (-)

Last Week: D 0-0 vs Seattle; Next Week: vs (7) LA Galaxy


10 Houston (25pts 7-6-4) Score: 6.5393 (+0.4534); Prev: 11 (+1); High 9 Low 16

Schedule: 15 (+6); Pace: 51 (LW 47); Remaining Schedule: 14 (-5)

Last Week: D 2-2 vs LAFC, W 3-0 vs Minnesota; Next Week: at (19) Colorado


11 *Montreal (24pts 8-11-0) Score: 6.4214 (-0.1013); Prev: 10 (-1); High 10 Low 23

Schedule: 16 (-7); Pace: 42 (LW 39); Remaining Schedule: 15 (-1)

Last Week: W2-1 vs Colorado; Next Week: at (4) New York City, vs (21) San Jose


12 *Vancouver (26pts 7-7-5) Score: 6.1518 (+0.5834); Prev: 13 (+1); High 9 Low 19

Schedule: 19 (-5); Pace: 46 (LW 43); Remaining Schedule: 13 (-)

Last Week: W 3-2 vs Chicago; Next Week: at (15) DC


13 *Salt Lake (29pts 9-8-2) Score: 5.8237 (+0.7153); Prev: 16 (+3); High 9 Low 18

Schedule: 13 (+10); Pace: 51 (LW 45); Remaining Schedule: 2 (-1)

Last Week: W 4-2 vs Kansas City, W 2-0 vs Dallas; Next Week: at (20) Minnesota


14 *Columbus (30pts 8-6-6) Score: 5.1478 (-0.7968); Prev: 12 (-2); High 5 Low 20

Schedule: 21 (-5); Pace: 51 (LW 53); Remaining Schedule: 10 (-2)

Last Week: L 4-0 at LA Galaxy; Next Week: at (4) New York City


15 DC (11pts 2-7-5) Score: 4.6671 (-0.4882); Prev: 15 (-); High 10 Low 19

Schedule: 18 (-); Pace: 26 (LW 26); Remaining Schedule: 3 (-)

Last Week: D 2-2 at LA Galaxy; Next Week: vs (12) Vancouver


16 Chicago (23pts 6-8-5) Score: 4.3149 (-1.1068); Prev: 14 (-2); High 12 Low 20

Schedule: 20 (-1); Pace: 41 (LW 43); Remaining Schedule: 11 (-4)

Last Week: L 3-2 at Vancouver; Next Week: vs (18) Philadelphia, at (5) Dallas


17 Seattle (16pts 4-9-4) Score: 4.2965 (+0.9246); Prev: 20 (+3); High 11 Low 20

Schedule: 2 (-); Pace: 32 (LW 27); Remaining Schedule: 17 (-)

Last Week: W 2-1 at Colorado, D 0-0 at New England; Next Week: at (2) Atlanta


18 Philadelphia (21pts 6-9-3) Score: 3.2643 (-1.5479); Prev: 17 (-1); High 12 Low 23

Schedule: 10 (+2); Pace: 39 (LW 42); Remaining Schedule: 9 (-3)

Last Week: L 2-0 at Atlanta; Next Week: at (16) Chicago


19 Colorado (15pts 4-11-3) Score: 2.9467 (-0.9626); Prev: 18 (-1); High 10 Low 23

Schedule: 9 (-5); Pace: 28 (LW 31); Remaining Schedule: 5 (+10)

Last Week: L 2-1 vs Seattle, L 2-1 at Montreal; Next Week: vs (10) Houston


20 Minnesota (19pts 6-11-1) Score: 2.8531 (-0.5359); Prev: 19 (-1); High 10 Low 20

Schedule: 7 (-4); Pace: 35 (LW 34); Remaining Schedule: 7 (+3)

Last Week: W 4-3 vs Toronto, L 3-0 at Houston; Next Week: vs (13) Salt Lake


21 San Jose (12pts 2-10-6) Score: 2.3787 (+0.0244); Prev: 22 (+1); High 17 Low 22

Schedule: 8 (+5); Pace: 22 (LW 24); Remaining Schedule: 6 (-1)

Last Week: L 2-1 at Portland; Next Week: at (11) Montreal


22 Toronto (16pts 4-10-4) Score: 1.9162 (-1.066); Prev: 21 (-1); High 17 Low 23

Schedule: 22 (-5); Pace: 30 (LW 31); Remaining Schedule: 1 (+3)\

Last Week: L 4-3 at Minnesota, D 2-2 at Kansas City; Next Week: at (23) Orlando


23 Orlando (19tps 6-11-1) Score: 1.8659 (-0.0498); Prev: 23 (-); High 2 Low 23

Schedule: 6 (+5); Pace: 35 (LW 37); Remaining Schedule: 8 (-6)

Last Week: L 4-1 at LAFC; Next Week: vs (22) Toronto


PREDICTIONS

Last Week, the SFPI went 9-8 (52.94%) to bring season total to 55-63 (46.61%). As always I will add 1.75 points to the home team score and then if teams are within 1.5 points predict a draw.

Montreal at New York City: NEW YORK

Philadelphia at Chicago: CHICAGO

Kansas City at New York RB: NEW YORK

Columbus at New York City: NEW YORK

San Jose at Montreal: MONTREAL

LA Galaxy at New England: DRAW

Chicago at Dallas: DALLAS

Vancouver at DC: DRAW

Salt Lake at Minnesota: DRAW

Toronto at Orlando: ORLANDO

Houston at Colorado: HOUSTON

Seattle at Atlanta: ATLANTA

Portland at LAFC: LAFC