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SFPI 2018 MLS Power Rankings Week 22

All Star “Break” Edition

MLS: MLS All-Star Game Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

We are at the All Star “Break”, the MLS All Stars fell in penalties to Juventus, but in league action things continued apace. Fanendo Adi had his Timbers Curtain Call scoring the game winning sunshine goal in his final appearance for the Green and Gold as Portland added to its 14 game unbeaten run, LA Galaxy extended their unbeaten run to 9, and Seattle, once thought to be dead and buried, is unbeaten in 6 thanks to a 2-0 week. On the other end, San Jose (who hasn’t beaten a team not from Minnesota since September of 2017) is winless in 12, and Kansas City, who had only lost twice in their first 16, are winless in 5 with 4 losses in that stretch.

Big winners this week by position are Columbus and Seattle both jumping 6 spots, and the big losers are Houston, Minnesota, and Kansas City all falling 5. By points, Columbus had the best week gaining 1.7019 thanks to a surprising road win at then #1 New York RB. The worst week belonged to Kansas City losing 1.4033 points after losing at home to Dallas.

As always, here’s a quick reminder of how I arrive at these rankings:

The SFPI has two main components: “Performance Score,” which is determined 100% by on-the-field results, and “Strength of Schedule,” which takes the average Performance Score of all of a team’s opponents to date, with a mechanism to account for games on the road.

Performance Score

A team’s Performance Score is made up of the following components:

  • Points Per Game (PPG) Score: This takes a team’s overall PPG and adds their PPG over their last five matches, with the last five being given more weight. This is the single largest component of the SFPI.
  • Goal Difference Per Game: Overall goal difference divided by total games played
  • Home/Away Bonus: Bonus points are awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, and an equal number of points are subtracted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over the entire season.

Strength of Schedule

As stated above, a team’s Strength of Schedule is reached by taking the average performance score of all of a team’s opponents to date. It accounts for road matches by adding a percentage of an opponent’s Points Per Game at home to their Performance Score. Teams faced multiple times are counted that number of times. Numbered 1-23, with 23 being the easiest, and weighted at less than 100%.

Strength of Schedule and Performance Score combine to give a team’s Total Score. A negative total score is theoretically possible, although it requires an extended period of very poor play.

Features of Note

  • Remaining Schedule: Same as Strength of Schedule, only for games remaining.
  • Pace: How many points is a team currently on pace for given their current PPG? Also shows how results for this week impact that pace vs last week.
  • Record is in W-L-D format. *Denotes Above Red Line.
  • Parentheses indicate change from the previous week, with – indicating no change.

Rankings

1 *Atlanta (47pts 14-4-5) Score: 11.2577 (+0.5418); Prev: 2 (+1); High 1 Low 6

Schedule: 9 (-3); Pace: 69 (LW 68); Remaining Schedule: 23 (-)

Total Weeks at #1: 6 (1 Consecutive)

Last Week: W 2-1 at Montreal; Next Week: vs (19) Toronto


2 *Dallas (42pts 12-3-6) Score: 10.7595 (+0.5931); Prev: 4 (+2); High 1 Low 9

Schedule: 2 (+2); Pace: 68 (LW 66); Remaining Schedule: 22 (-1)

Total Weeks at #1: 3

Last Week: W 3-2 at Kansas City; Next Week: vs (21) San Jose


3 *New York City (43pts 13-5-4) Score: 10.6324 (+0.0637); Prev: 3 (-); High 2 Low 6

Schedule: 16 (-5); Pace: 66 (LW 68); Remaining Schedule: 19 (+3)

Last Week: W 2-0 at Orlando, L 3-1 at Seattle; Next Week: vs (15) Vancouver


4 *New York RB (41pts 13-6-2) Score: 10.0234 (-0.9019); Prev: 1 (-3); High 1 Low 12

Schedule: 6 (+4); Pace: 66 (LW 68); Remaining Schedule: 18 (-1)

Total Weeks at #1: 3

Last Week: W 1-0 at DC, L 3-2 vs Columbus; Next Week: vs (7) LAFC


5 *Portland (34pts 9-3-7) Score: 9.6997 (+0.5319); Prev: 6 (+1); High 2 Low 9

Schedule: 13 (-5); Pace: 60 (LW 58); Remaining Schedule: 17 (+2)

Last Week: W 2-1 vs Houston; Next Week: vs (17) Philadelphia


6 *LA Galaxy (35pts 10-7-5) Score: 9.2836 (+0.7154); Prev: 7 (+1); High 6 Low 18

Schedule: 4 (-2); Pace: 54 (LW 52); Remaining Schedule: 20 (-)

Last Week: D 2-2 at LAFC, W 4-3 vs Orlando; Next Week: at (23) Colorado


7 *LAFC (36pts 10-5-6) Score: 9.2373 (-0.5027); Prev: 5 (-2); High 1 Low 8

Schedule: 1 (+2); Pace: 58 (LW 59); Remaining Schedule: 21 (-3)

Total Weeks at #1: 2

Last Week: D 2-2 vs LA Galaxy; Next Week: at (4) New York RB


8 *Columbus (36pts 10-7-6) Score: 7.2873 (+1.7019); Prev: 14 (+6); High 5 Low 20

Schedule: 20 (+2); Pace: 53 (LW 51); Remaining Schedule: 13 (-6)

Last Week: W 3-2 at New York RB; Next Week: Bye


9 Seattle (26pts 7-9-5) Score: 7.1728 (+1.6767); Prev: 15 (+6); High 9 Low 20

Schedule: 3 (-2); Pace: 42 (LW 35); Remaining Schedule: 16 (-)

Last Week: W 1-0 at San Jose, W 3-1 vs New York City; Next Week: at (16) Minnesota


10 DC (17pts 4-9-5) Score: 5.9963 (+0.3627); Prev: 12 (+2); High 10 Low 19

Schedule: 10 (+1); Pace: 32 (LW 29); Remaining Schedule: 10 (-)

Last Week: L 1-0 vs New York RB, W 2-1 vs Colorado; Next Week: at (12) Montreal


11 *Salt Lake (31pts 9-94) Score: 5.9625 (+0.3734); Prev: 13 (+2); High 9 Low 18

Schedule: 18 (-1); Pace: 47 (LW 48); Remaining Schedule: 8 (-5)

Last Week: D 0-0 at San Jose; Next Week: vs (22) Chicago


12 *Montreal (28pts 9-13-1) Score: 5.7016 (-0.4443); Prev: 9 (-3); High 9 Low 23

Schedule: 11 (+3); Pace: 41 (LW 43); Remaining Schedule: 15 (-1)

Last Week: L 2-1 vs Atlanta; Next Week: vs (10) DC


13 *Kansas City (33pts 9-6-6) Score: 5.4706 (-1.4033); Prev: 8 (-5); High 4 Low 13

Schedule: 14 (+4); Pace: 53 (LW 56); Remaining Schedule: 12 (-)

Last Week: L 3-2 vs Dallas; Next Week: at (14) Houston


14 Houston (27pts 7-8-6) Score: 4.9592 (-1.1232); Prev: 9 (-5); High 9 Low 16

Schedule: 19 (-); Pace: 45 (LW 50); Remaining Schedule: 7 (+1)

Last Week: L 3-1 vs Philadelphia, L 2-1 at Portland; Next Week: vs (13) Kansas City


15 Vancouver (29pts 8-9-5) Score: 4.917 (+0.9369); Prev: 17 (+2); High 9 Low 19

Schedule: 22 (-1); Pace: 44 (LW 42); Remaining Schedule: 6 (-2)

Last Week: W 4-2 vs Minnesota; Next Week: at (3) New York City


16 Minnesota (28pts 9-12-1) Score: 4.77 (-1.29150); Prev: 11 (-5); High 10 Low 20

Schedule: 21 (-5); Pace: 43 (LW 45); Remaining Schedule: 2 (+9)

Last Week: L 4-2 at Vancouver; Next Week: vs (9) Seattle


17 Philadelphia (27pts 8-10-3) Score: 4.736 (+0.7651); Prev: 18 (+1); High 12 Low 23

Schedule: 17 (+3); Pace: 43 (LW 40); Remaining Schedule: 9 (-3)

Last Week: W 3-1 at Houston; Next Week: at (5) Portland


18 *New England (28pts 7-7-7) Score: 4.6172 (+0.0065); Prev: 16 (-2); High 6 Low 18

Schedule: 8 (-1); Pace: 45 (LW 45); Remaining Schedule: 14 (+1)

Last Week: Bye; Next Week: at (20) Orlando


19 Toronto (22pts 6-11-4) Score: 4.0007 (+0.9241); Prev: 19 (-); High 17 Low 23

Schedule: 23 (-); Pace: 35 (LW 32); Remaining Schedule: 1 (-)

Last Week: W 3-0 vs Chicago; Next Week: at (1) Atlanta


20 Orlando (22pts 7-14-1) Score: 2.315 (-0.3981); Prev: 20 (-); High 2 Low 23

Schedule: 5 (+8); Pace: 34 (LW 37); Remaining Schedule: 5 (-)

Last Week: L 2-0 vs New York City, L 4-3 at LA Galaxy; Next Week: vs (18) New England


21 San Jose (13pts 2-12-7) Score: 1.4557 (-0.991); Prev: 21 (-); High 17 Low 22

Schedule: 7 (-2); Pace: 21 (LW 21); Remaining Schedule: 11 (+2)

Last Week: L 1-0 vs Seattle, D 0-0 Salt Lake; Next Week: at (2) Dallas


22 Chicago (23pts 6-12-5) Score: 1.3643 (-0.9465); Prev: 23 (+1); High 12 Low 23

Schedule: 12 (+3); Pace: 34 (LW 35); Remaining Schedule: 4 (+5)

Last Week: L 3-0 at Toronto; Next Week: at (11) Salt Lake


23 Colorado (17pts 4-12-5) Score: 1.3573 (-1.0171); Prev 22: (-1); High 10 Low 23

Schedule: 15 (-3); Pace: 27 (LW 28); Remaining Schedule: 3 (-1)

Last Week: L 2-1 at DC; Next Week: vs (6) LA Galaxy


Predictions

Last Week the SFPI went 9-6 (60%) to bring the season total 75-82 (45.77%). As always, add 1.75 to the home team score, then if both teams are within 1.5 points predict a draw.


Toronto at Atlanta: ATLANTA

DC at Montreal: DRAW

New England at Orlando: DRAW

San Jose at Dallas: DALLAS

Seattle at Minnesota: DRAW

Vancouver at New York City: NEW YORK

LA Galaxy at Colorado: LA

Kansas City at Houston: DRAW

Chicago at Salt Lake: SALT LAKE

Philadelphia at Portland: PORTLAND

LAFC at New York RB: NEW YORK


Playoff Picture

If my predictions are 100% correct what will the tables look like?


EAST

1 Atlanta 50

2 New York City 46

3 New York RB 44

4 Columbus 36

5 Montreal 29

6 New England 29

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7 Philadelphia 27

8 Orlando 23 (total wins)

9 Chicago 23

10 Toronto 22

11 DC 18

WEST

1 Dallas 45

2 LA Galaxy 38

3 Portland 37

4 LAFC 34 (Goal Diff)

5 Salt Lake 34 (Total Wins)

6 Kansas City 34

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7 Vancouver 29

8 Minnesota 29

9 Houston 28

10 Seattle 27

11 Colorado 17

12 San Jose 13