Rose City Forecast 32: SJE vs PTFC

Welcome to the final three prediction threads of the season. I didn’t continue these threads into the playoffs in 2015 and look where that got us. I’ll be doing the same thing this year, so you’ve got three weeks to make your mark on the standings!

Another home game, another win. It’s been over two months since the last time the Timbers failed to take three points from Providence Park, and the match against Orlando was the most dominant of the bunch. It was perhaps the most dominant win all year for the Timbers. The boys in green were up 2-0 30 minutes into the match and never backed off. Valeri got on the board first after taking a PK earned by Darren Mattocks. Nine games in a row. Mattocks got himself on the board for the second, finishing a lovely Dairon Asprilla cross. Then, Orlando defender Jonathan Spector got himself sent off for a second yellow just two minutes into the second half and Valeri added the third goal off a rebound. 3-0 Timbers, and if that wasn’t enough, Orlando’s last substitute earned a straight red when he elbowed Chara just minutes after he entered the match. Game over.

Everybody in the thread predicted a win, so overall this was a good week for points, but Schmadam08 was the only person to get the 3-0 scoreline correct, and as they also guessed a Diego Valeri PK goal, there is the comfortable pick of the week with 13 points earned. MindfulCyclist had the most recommended pick for suggesting that VAR would catch Dom Dwyer diving. It didn’t happen as such, but it did show that our Darren Mattocks doesn’t dive, so close enough.

The standings follow. As you’ll notice, it looks like it’s turned into a battle for second as STYLES34 has built a nearly 30-point cushion in first with only three threads to go. Let me know if I missed points!

This Saturday we have the final away match of the regular season, with PTFC playing in the Bay Area. San Jose has been quite good at home since their coaching change - except last week when Chicago absolutely dismantled them. That said, they’ve also had four goals scored against them in three of their last four matches. They’re vulnerable, but still have the capacity to win at home. For the Timbers, it turns out that Adi’s not actually coming back yet, but as Darren Mattocks has been productive (if frustrating), and Diego Valeri is in the form of his life, that may not be a problem. If Valeri gets an assist this match, he’ll get a 20-10 season. If he gets a goal, it’s ten games straight, and he extends his hold on that record. Can he do it on the way to a Timbers result?

Over/under: 4.5 total cards

The Scoring Format:

• Correct score: 5 points
• Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
• Each clean sheet: 2 points
• Each goal-scorer: 1 point
• Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
• Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
• Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
• Each player with a red card: 1 point (Cannot earn points for predicting 0 red cards)
• Over/under on total cards: 1 point
• Most recommended/most outrageously accurate prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):

You may amend your prediction at any point up to kick off to account for game day 18 announcements. I recommend at least getting an initial prediction sooner, just in case you forget to come back in that hour or two before the game.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. Basically, if you’re predicting lots of goals all the time to just earn points on goals and assists and ignoring the score, I feel that goes against the spirit of this thread. This hasn’t been at all a problem in the last two years, so let’s keep it that way!

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you correctly get the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal. (e.g., if Nagbe scores, assisted by Valeri, and you predicted that exact combination you get a total of three points - 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 bonus. However, if you predicted Nagbe scores assisted by Adi and Adi scores assisted by Valeri, you would get two points from the Nagbe/Valeri prediction - 1 goal, 1 assist)

Please be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = directly from a free kick. For the purposes of this thread, a PK counts as a FK, and a FK as a PK. If you just leave the assist section blank, I will assume you’re declining to make an assist prediction.

Even though a player can be awarded a secondary assist by OPTA, I will award a maximum of one assist point per goal. But that point can come from either the primary or secondary assist in the box score. However, please keep your predictions to one assist per goal.

For the over/under on cards, a second yellow leading to a red counts as two cards, not three.

You may predict more than one red card if you’re expecting a chippy match, but only up to three total.

Most weeks, I will reward the most recommended prediction with the 2 points. However, if someone predicts that Caleb will bring a towel to dry off Seattle’s field, and he does, they’ll probably get those two points, regardless of whether they got the recs. We’ll also be testing this out, because I want to be careful that this doesn’t end up favoring the first few people to post their prediction. As I see it, the goal here is to add even more fun without going too over-the-top ridiculous.

If you’re looking for where I set the over/under on total cards, check the end of the preview paragraph after the standings.

Format:

In the comment title, post your predicted score with the winners, eg: 4-2 Timbers

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:

Nagbe (Valeri)

Valeri (Free kick)

Adi (PK)

Blanco (Unassisted)

Beckham (Free kick)

Donovan (Beckham)

Next, choose your first yellow card, and that means picking only one person.

First yellow to Nigel De Jong

Then reds, if any. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.)

Nigel De Jong gets a red card for stomping Blanco.

Clearly note whether you’re predicting over or under on total cards. Don’t leave me to try and figure it out!

And lastly, make your fun prediction.

Nigel de Jong tries to stomp Nagbe’s ankle again, but this time, Nagbe avoids the tackle. Being angry Nagbe for the first time in three years, he kicks the ball straight into NDJ’s groin. Camera pans to a trademark Chara smile.

As always, any questions about anything?