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SFPI MLS Power Rankings Week 28

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#RainIsAGoodThing Edition

MLS: Orlando City SC at New England Revolution Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

This is it, the home stretch! We enter the final month of the season, and the only thing we know for sure is that Toronto is in the playoffs, and thanks to a favorable schedule this week (even with it being a double week for them) could potentially clinch the 2017 Supporters’ Shield. The biggest winner this week was San Jose climbing 4 spots thanks to a 1-0 win at home that also put them back over the red line. The biggest loser was New England falling 4 spots thanks to earning 3 red cards in two games, losing by a combined score of 10-1, and being held without a shot against Atlanta (the first time in MLS history a team has not recorded a single shot in a game).


COMPONENTS OF SFPI

PERFORMANCE SCORE: 100% determined by on field performance made up of the following:

PPG Score: Total Points Per Game added to PPG over Last Five, with Last Five being given more weight. Single Largest Component of SFPI

Goal Difference Per Game: Overall Goal Difference divided by total games played

Home/Away Bonus: Bonus Points awarded for earning results (W/D) on the road, points deducted for dropping results (D/L) at home. Accrues over entire season.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Average Performance Scores of all of a teams opponents to date. Accounts for road games by adding a percentage of a teams Home PPG to the performance score when faced on the road. Teams faced multiple times are counted multiple times. Weighted at less than 100%

TOTAL SCORE

Performance Score and Strength of Schedule are added together to make a teams Total Score. Teams are then ranked in order from highest to lowest.


(All Times Pacific *Above Red Line **Clinched Playoff Spot)

1 **TORONTO FC (62pts 18W-3L-8D) SCORE: 14.1052 (+0.5022) PREV 1 (NC) H1/L10

SCHEDULE: 21 (-3) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 16 (-1) (9 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 72 (+1)

GAMES REMAINING: 5 CONSECUTIVE WEEKS AT #1: 9

LAST WEEK: W 4-0 at Los Angeles

NEXT WEEK: vs (18) Montreal Wed 9/20 430pm, at (15) New England Sat 9/23 2pm


2 *ATLANTA UNITED (43pts 12W-8L-7D) SCORE: 8.8572 (+0.6464) PREV: 4 (+2) H2/L12

SCHEDULE: 15 (-3) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 17 (NC) (10 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 54 (+1)

GAMES REMAINING: 7

LAST WEEK: W 7-0 vs New England, D 3-3 vs Orlando

NEXT WEEK: vs (22) Los Angeles Wed 9/20 4pm (ESPN2) vs (18) Montreal Sun 9/24 2pm (FOX)


3 *PORTLAND TIMBERS (44pts 12W-10L-8D) SCORE: 8.1937 (-0.0738) PREV: 3 (NC) H1/L17

SCHEDULE: 12 (+2) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 14 (+5) (7 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 49 (-2)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: L 2-1 at Salt Lake NEXT WEEK: vs (16) Orlando Sun 9/24 5pm (FS1)


4 *VANCOUVER WHITECAPS (45pts 13W-9L-6D) SCORE: 8.1765 (+0.2193) PREV: 6 (+2) H4/L22

SCHEDULE: 22 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 6 (+4) (1 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 54 (+1)

GAMES REMAINING: 6

LAST WEEK: W 3-0 vs Minnesota, D 2-2 vs Columbus NEXT WEEK: vs (21) Colorado sat 9/23 7pm


5 *CHICAGO FIRE (48pts 14W-9L-6D) SCORE: 7.8524 (+0.7729) PREV: 8 (+3) H1/L14

SCHEDULE: 9 (-7) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 15 (+5) (9 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 56 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: W 3-0 vs DC United NEXT WEEK: at (17) Philadelphia Sat 9/23 4pm


6 *NEW YORK CITY FC (51pts 15W-8L-6D) SCORE: 7.7832 (-0.587) PREV: 2 (-4) H2/L12

SCHEDULE: 11 (-2) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 12 (+2) (6 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 59 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: D 1-1 at Colorado NEXT WEEK: vs (13) Houston Sat 9/23 12pm (UniMas)


7 *SPORTING KANSAS CITY (44pts 11W-6L-11D) SCORE: 7.78 (+0.7408) PREV: 9 (+2) H2/L11

SCHEDULE: 17 (+2) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 18 (NC) (8 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 53 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 6

LAST WEEK: W 3-1 vs New England

NEXT WEEK: vs (22) Los Angeles Sun 9/24 11am (FOX)


8 *SEATTLE SOUNDERS (44pts 11W-7L-11D) SCORE: 7.6334 (-0.4868) PREV: 5 (-3) H3/L17

SCHEDULE: 13 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 19 (+2) (9 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 51 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: D 0-0 at Dallas NEXT WEEK: at (12) Salt Lake Sat 9/23 630pm


9 *COLUMBUS CREW SC (44pts 13W-12L-5D) SCORE: 7.3524 (-0.352) PREV: 7 (-2) H1/L16

SCHEDULE: 2 (+1) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 20 (-9) (11 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 49 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: D 2-2 at Vancouver NEXT WEEK: vs (10) New York RB Sat 9/23 430pm


10 *NEW YORK RED BULLS (42pts 12W-10L-6D) SCORE: 6.0492 (-0.875) PREV: 10 (NC) H6/L19

SCHEDULE: 20 (-4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 3 (+2) (3 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 51 (NC)

GAMES REMAINING: 6

LAST WEEK: D 0-0 vs Philadelphia NEXT WEEK: at (9) Columbus Sat 9/23 430pm


11 *SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES (39pts 11W-12L-6D) SCORE: 5.9279 (+0.912) PREV: 15 (+4) H5/L17

SCHEDULE: 18 (-3) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 8 (+4) (3 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 45 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: W 1-0 vs Houston NEXT WEEK: at (19) DC Sat 9/23 4pm


12 *REAL SALT LAKE (38pts 11W-14L-5D) SCORE: 5.7859 (+0.201) PREV: 13 (+1) H12/L22

SCHEDULE: 16 (+4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 21 (-5) (10 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 43 (+2)

GAMES REMAINING: 4

LAST WEEK: W 2-1 vs Portland NEXT WEEK: vs (8) Seattle Sat 9/23 630pm


13 HOUSTON DYNAMO (38pts 10W-10L-8D) SCORE: 5.5797 (-0.3565) PREV: 12 (-1) H4/L17

SCHEDULE: 19 (+2) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 10 (5 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 46 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 6

LAST WEEK: L 1-0 at San Jose NEXT WEEK: at (6) New York City Sat 9/23 12pm (UniMas)


14 FC DALLAS (38pts 9W-8L-11D) SCORE: 5.315 (+0.2144) PREV: 14 (NC) H1/L15

SCHEDULE: 4 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 22 (NC) (11 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 46 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 6

LAST WEEK: D 0-0 vs Seattle NEXT WEEK: at (20) Minnesota Sat 9/23 5pm


15 NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION (35pts 10W-14L-5D) SCORE: 4.9229 (-1.1507) PREV: 11 (-4) H5/L18

SCHEDULE: 3 (+4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 2 (-1) (2 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 41 (-3)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: L 7-0 at Atlanta, L 3-1 at Kansas City NEXT WEEK: vs (1) Toronto Sat 9/23 2pm


16 ORLANDO CITY SC (35pts 9W-12L-8D) SCORE: 4.82 (+0.4743) PREV: 17 (+1) H2/L19

SCHEDULE: 1 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 13 (-6) (7 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 41 (NC)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: D 3-3 at Atlanta NEXT WEEK: at (3) Portland Sun 9/24 5pm


17 PHILADELPHIA UNION (33pts 8W-12L-9D) SCORE: 3.7217 (+0.2467) PREV: 18 (+1) H6/L22

SCHEDULE: 14 (-6) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 5 (+3) (5 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 38 (-1)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: D 0-0 at New York RB NEXT WEEK: vs (5) Chicago Sat 9/23 4pm


18 MONTREAL IMPACT (36pts 10W-12L-6D) SCORE: 3.4443 (-1.4993) PREV: 16 (-2) H6/L18

SCHEDULE: 10 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 1 (+1) (1 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 43 (-2)

GAMES REMAINING: 6

LAST WEEK: L 3-2 vs Minnesota

NEXT WEEK: at (1) Toronto Wed 9/20 430pm at (2) Atlanta Sun 9/24 2pm (FOX)


19 DC UNITED (28pts 8W-17L-4D) SCORE: 3.3556 (-0.0869) PREV: 19 (NC) H8/L22

SCHEDULE: 5 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 4 (-1) (4 EAST) OVERALL PACE: 32 (-2)

GAMES REMAINING: 5

LAST WEEK: L 3-0 at Chicago NEXT WEEK: vs (11) San Jose Sat 9/23 4pm


20 MINNESOTA UNITED (29pts 8W-15L-5D) SCORE: 3.0594 (+0.5355) PREV: 20 (NC) H19/L22

SCHEDULE: 6 (NC) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 9 (NC) (4 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 35 (+1)

GAMES REMAINING: 6

LAST WEEK: L 3-0 at Vancouver W 3-2 at Montreal NEXT WEEK: vs (14) Dallas Sat 9/23 5pm


21 COLORADO RAPIDS (26 pts 7W-16L-5D) SCORE: 2.2434 (+0.3008) PREV: 22 (+1) H17/L22

SCHEDULE: 7 (+4) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 11 (-5) (6 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 31 (NC)

GAMES REMAINING: 6

LAST WEEK: D 1-1 vs New York City NEXT WEEK: at (4) Vancouver Sat 9/23 7pm


22 LOS ANGELES GALAXY (27pts 7W-15L-6D) SCORE: 2.1036 (-0.4178) PREV: 21 (-1) H3/L22

SCHEDULE: 8 (+9) REMAINING SCHEDULE: 7 (-3) (2 WEST) OVERALL PACE: 32 (-2)

GAMES REMAINING: 6

LAST WEEK: L 4-0 vs Toronto

NEXT WEEK: at (2) Atlanta Wed 9/20 4pm (ESPN2), at (7) Kansas City Sun 9/24 11am (FOX)



PREDICTIONS

Last week the SFPI went 5-8 (38.46%) to bring the season total to 115-146 (43.68%). It was a weird week, that saw several teams drop points at home that normally they wouldn't, but that is MLS for you.

Los Angeles at Atlanta: ATLANTA

Montreal at Toronto: TORONTO

Houston at New York City: NEW YORK

Toronto at New England: TORONTO

San Jose at DC: DRAW

Chicago at Philadelphia: CHICAGO

New York RB at Columbus: COLUMBUS

Dallas at Minnesota: DRAW

Seattle at Salt Lake: DRAW

Colorado at Vancouver: VANCOUVER

Los Angeles at Kansas City: KANSAS CITY

Montreal at Atlanta: ATLANTA

Orlando at Portland: PORTLAND


PLAYOFF PICTURE

This week could see the Easts playoff picture come into much sharper focus. Toronto could clinch the Shield, while NYC, Chicago, and Atlanta could all clinch playoff spots, with Atlanta becoming the first Expansion team since that team up north to do so in its first season. And DC being put out of its misery as the first team to be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention

The West will remain a jumbled mess.


If the predictions are 100% correct, what will the table look like.

EAST (*Clinched Playoff Spot **Clinched Bye #Eliminated) (Max points possible)

1 **TORONTO 68 (77!)

2 *NEW YORK CITY 54 (66)

3 *CHICAGO 51 (63)

4 *ATLANTA 49 (64)

5 COLUMBUS 47 (56)

6 NEW YORK RB 42 (57)

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7 MONTREAL 36 (48)

8 NEW ENGLAND 35 (47) (total wins)

9 ORLANDO 35 (47)

10 PHILADELPHIA 33 (45)

11 #DC 29 (41)


WEST

1 VANCOUVER 48 (63)

2 PORTLAND 47 (56) (total wins)

3 KANSAS CITY 47 (62)

4 SEATTLE 45 (57)

5 SAN JOSE 40 (52)

6 SALT LAKE 39 (48) (total wins)

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7 DALLAS 39 (54)

8 HOUSTON 38 (53)

9 MINNESOTA 30 (45)

10 LOS ANGELES 27 (39) (Mathematically still alive and could potentially pass FCD on total wins TB)

11 COLORADO 26 (41)


TIMBERS ROOTING INTEREST

Even though the Timbers Lost, the rest of league shook out ok with most of the teams around them dropping points. As such, they remain only one point off 1st (although Vancouver still has 2 games in hand) and 4th on points per game. However on a total scale the Timbers week only rated 2.75 out of a possible 9 points (with EC only games counting for only 0.5 possible points) But now that they are back in second in the West and there are two non-Canadian teams ahead of them for the shield (and therefore CCL spots should Toronto, Vancouver, or the USOC winner lift MLS Cup) we will turn our focus back only to the western conference and will only revisit the east if other results allow.

Assuming a Timbers win, what games should we pay attention to and how should we root?

LA at Atlanta: ATLANTA (as it stands LA could still potentially catch Portland, this would put it out of reach)

Houston at NYCFC: NYCFC (yes a draw would allow Portland to gain ground on NY in the Shield but they are already 7 back with 4 to play and it is all but out of reach anyway, putting maximum distance between us and Houston is more important)

San Jose at DC: DC (This would make it so Portland could clinch a playoff spot with a W at San Jose the following week)

Dallas at Minnesota: MINNESOTA (The Loons realistically can't catch Portland, and this would all but put Dallas out of reach as well)

Seattle at RSL: DRAW (RSL is surging and need to win every game to keep playoffs alive, but with Seattle having a game in hand on Portland, both teams dropping points is an ideal scenario)

Colorado at Vancouver: COLORADO (at this point we need Vancouver to drop as many points as possible, and since even a draw for Portland would put Colorado out of reach let them take all 3)

Los Angeles at Kansas City: LOS ANGELES (Now that the Galaxy, following their loss to Atlanta, are out of reach they need to play spoiler, and with SKC likely gassed following their USOC match Wednesday *COME ON PENALTIES* they are ripe to steal some points)

Here is how the table would look with a 100% for the Timbers week

(*Clinched Playoffs #Eliminated) (Max Points possible)

1 PORTLAND 47 (56)

2 SEATTLE 45 (57) (Goal Difference)

3 VANCOUVER 45 (60)

4 KANSAS CITY 44 (59)

5 SALT LAKE 39 (48) (Total Wins)

6 SAN JOSE 39 (52)

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7 HOUSTON 38 (53) (Goal Difference)

8 DALLAS 38 (53)

9 MINNESOTA 32 (47)

10 LOS ANGELES 30 (42)

11 COLORADO 29 (45)

It is looking quite likely that the West may not be decided till "Decision Day" and I doubt Don Garber could be any more pleased.