Rose City Forecast 2: NYRB vs PTFC

Welcome to the second Forecast of 2018! We hope you’re here to take a shot at predicting the outcome of this weekend’s Timber’s match. Remember to make sure you’re clear on the rules, particularly on how cards and assists are scored, and keep in mind the fun prediction has to be at least a little bit absurd (as in, not something likely to happen) to be considered! Also, a reminder to STYLES34: as last year’s victor, feel free to add “Stumptown Weatherperson: Prediction Champion 2017” to your signature. Everyone needs the reminder that you’re the one to beat!

For the game summary, I’m going to steal a line from oregonvania’s prediction: “Sadly, it’s March at StubHub, and our defensive midfield and fullback play allows self-immolation,” and that was pretty much the story, at least of the first half. The Timbers came out stronger in the second, but fell short of a comeback with only one goal. Here are the parts of the box score relevant to the points system here at the Forecast:

PTFC Goal(s): Blanco (Adi)

Opponent Goal(s): Alessandrini (unassisted); Kamara (Feltscher, J. dos Santos)

Yellows: Alessandrini, Mabiala, Ciani

Reds: N/A

A perfect prediction would have earned 19 points.

This week, oregonvania and 4-5-2 had the best forecasts, calling the 2-1 scoreline with PTFC losing and a couple points for goals, assists, and under on yellows. MacVanek wins the silly prediction of the week with his suggestion that Giovanni Savarese would speak five languages in his post game interview. (oregonvania could’ve had a shot at this for their accurate prediction regarding fullbacks and defensive midfield if it weren’t so disappointing.)

The first standings of 2018:

Preview:

Is Providence Park still under construction? Yes. Does that mean another road game? Yes. This week, however, instead of cruising down the coast, the Timbers have to do some transcontinental travel to New York for the first of five games in the Eastern timezone. PTFC catches a bit of a break in that they face the New York Red Bulls between legs of a CCL match up with Club Tijuana. And at this point, the Red Bulls are favored, having taken a 2-0 lead on the road in the first leg. Which all comes around to a good chance that Jesse Marsch’s side will consist largely of reserves when they face the Timbers. Unfortunately, it’s still March, when the Timbers have historically underperformed, and it’s still a long road trip in MLS. Can Savarese’s team come away with a win?

Total Cards O/U: 4.5

The Scoring Format:

• Correct score: 5 points
• Correct result (draw/win/loss): 3 points
• Each clean sheet: 2 points
• Each goal-scorer: 1 point
• Each FK/PK/assist/lack of assist: 1 point
• Goal/assist bonus: 1 point
• Player with the first yellow card of the match: 1 point
• Each player with a red card: 1 point (Cannot earn points for predicting 0 red cards, but you may predict up to 3 players with a red.)
• Over/under on total cards: 1 point
• Most outrageous(ly accurate) prediction: 2 points

Some ground rules and explanations/clarifications (the fine print):

You may amend your prediction at any point up to kick off to account for game day 18 announcements. I recommend at least getting an initial prediction sooner, just in case you forget to come back in that hour or two before the game.

Keep your scoreline predictions realistic. Basically, if you’re predicting lots of goals all the time to just earn points on goals and assists and ignoring the score, I feel that goes against the spirit of this thread. This hasn’t been at all a problem in the last two years, so let’s keep it that way!

The goal/assist bonus is an additional point if you correctly get the correct scorer and assistant on the same goal. (e.g., if Nagbe scores, assisted by Valeri, and you predicted that exact combination you get a total of three points - 1 goal, 1 assist, 1 bonus. However, if you predicted Nagbe scores assisted by Adi and Adi scores assisted by Valeri, you would get two points from the Nagbe/Valeri prediction - 1 goal, 1 assist)

Please be clear whether you think a goal will be unassisted, assisted, or from a PK/FK. Unassisted = no assist, run of play; Assisted = player who got the assist; PK/FK = directly from a free kick. For the purposes of this thread, a PK counts as a FK, and a FK as a PK. If you just leave the assist section blank, I will assume you’re declining to make an assist prediction.

Even though a player can be awarded a secondary assist by OPTA, I will award a maximum of one assist point per goal. But that point can come from either the primary or secondary assist in the box score. However, please keep your predictions to one assist per goal.

For the over/under on cards, a second yellow leading to a red counts as two cards, not three.

You may predict more than one red card if you’re expecting a chippy match, but only up to three total.

For the most outrageous(ly accurate) prediction, I will be trying to toe a line between completely absurd and mundane in my choices. As I see it, the goal here is to add even more fun without going too over-the-top ridiculous. So, in my mind, the best predictions will be something that could conceivably happen, but don’t happen often, like amusing coaching spats or goals that bounce off the crossbar, then off the keeper’s back, and then in. Things like that.

If you’re looking for where I set the over/under on total cards, check the end of the preview paragraph after the standings.

Format:

In the comment title, post your predicted score with the winners, eg: 4-2 Timbers

In the body of your comment, start with the goals and assists, like so:

Nagbe (Valeri)

Valeri (Free kick)

Adi (PK)

Blanco (Unassisted)

Beckham (Free kick)

Donovan (Beckham)

Next, choose your first yellow card, and that means picking only one person.

First yellow to Nigel De Jong

Then reds, if any. (NOTE: no points awarded for correctly calling a red-card-free match, so take a guess.)

Nigel De Jong gets a red card for stomping Blanco.

Clearly note whether you’re predicting over or under on total cards. Don’t leave me to try and figure it out!

And lastly, make your fun prediction.

Nigel de Jong tries to stomp Nagbe’s ankle again, but this time, Nagbe avoids the tackle. Being angry Nagbe for the first time in three years, he kicks the ball straight into NDJ’s groin. Camera pans to a trademark Chara smile.

As always, any questions about anything?